Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season
What does the cyclone season hold in store for us this year?
On the basis of the best available information, it is considered unlikely that the coming cyclone season will be quite as active as last season. In 2005-06, there were 5 tropical cyclones in the Queensland region with both LARRY and MONICA having severe impacts on the east coast.
The general climate pattern is typical of the developing stage of an El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the region and sustained negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index have been recorded.
Furthermore, there is considered to be an elevated risk that these El Niño conditions will soon become fully established, and then persist through until Autumn next year.
The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson said today that from a climatological perspective, cyclone occurrence on and near the east Queensland coast is lower during El Niño conditions than in Neutral or La Niña years.
Accordingly, cyclone numbers this season are more likely to be below average. At least two cyclones are expected however and one of these may well be severe.
At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.
Mr Davidson reaffirmed that the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared.
It is also worthwhile to note that the steady growth in coastal development has served to significantly increase community vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with mitigation being a widely accepted strategy to reduce the impact.
The best source of information on cyclones is the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre’s web site at www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone. People are advised to take time out to read the “Surviving Cyclones” brochure as it provides timely advice on preparing for tropical cyclones – and includes a summary of the warning service.
The seasonal outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria is issued by the Northern Territory Regional Office
