The latest Tropical Cyclone Advice from the Bureau of Meteorology was issued at 7.47am this morning. It advised that a Cyclone Warning is now current for northern parts of Fraser Island and a Cyclone Watch is current for the mainland coast and offshore islands from Yeppoon to Tewantin.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish remains a category 4 storm and it continues to move southeast at 11km/h.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop around Hervey Bay in the next 24 hours but the wind gusts certainly have increased and there are some branches down in various parts of Hervey Bay.

It’s now becoming clear that the Weather Bureau is having difficulty predicting the track that Tropical Cyclone Hamish will take in the hours ahead. At 2am the Bureau’s Cyclone Threat Map showed the cyclone turning west before turning to the northwest and moving back up the coast.

The 5am map shows the cyclone turning towards the east – away from the coast – before heading northwest. The notes accompanying the 5am map say that Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to turn towards the coast.

What we do know for sure is that Tropical Cyclone Hamish continues to be a category 4 and at 4am it was located 140kms northeast of Sandy Cape and in the Bureau’s words “has recently been moving south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour”.

The Bureau suggests that the cyclone will slow during the day and begin to weaken and in their 5am advice the Bureau forecasts that on Wednesday it will “begin to west towards the coast as a weaker cyclone.” Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect the northern part of Fraser Island during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop along the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Tewantin (that includes Hervey Bay) druing the next 24 hours.

Basically what all that means is that the threat from Cyclone Hamish has not gone away and here in Hervey Bay we are still on cyclone watch.

Just before 8pm this evening the Bureau of Meteorology released it’s latest advice and tropical cyclone map for Tropical Cyclone Hamish. This cyclone is currently a category 4 storm and is like to remain that way for at least the next 12 hours. The cyclone is currently located approximately 245km north northeast of Bundaberg and is moving southeast at 15km an hour.

The cyclone will bring damaging wind gusts to an area along the coast between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay and these are likely to continue for some hours. Despite some media reports to the contrary there is still a possibility that the Tropical Cyclone Hamish will come ashore around Hervey Bay although the Bureau’s computer modelling does suggest that this is unlikely.

The next tropical cyclone update on the Hervey Bay Gossip will be around 5am tomorrow.

The latest advice from the Weather Bureau released at 1.53pm today indicates that Tropical Cyclone Hamish continues as a category 4 cyclone. It is currently located approximately 270km north northeast of Bundaberg and is moving southeast at 15km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish continues to pose a threat to exposed coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay and it is expected to maintain a parallel track to the coast for the next 24 hours. In the next 24 to 48 hour period the cylone is expected to become slow moving and weaken slightly.

Currently in Hervey Bay the winds are picking up and showers continue.

Computer modelling by the Bureau of the possible track that Tropical Cyclone Hamish will take seems to indicate that parts of Fraser Island may still be affected by the cyclone late tomorrow.

At 7.38am this morning the Bureau of Meteorology advised that Tropical Cyclone Hamish continues as a category 4 cyclone and it continues to move southeast at 12km/h. At 7am Tropical Cyclone Hamish was located approximately 345km north of Bundaberg.

The Bureau’s Cyclone Threat Map shows that the cyclone is expected to continue well to the east of Hervey Bay but it could still come close to Fraser Island. The next advice from the Bureau will be released at 11am.

As Tropical Cyclone Hamish approaches and evacuations may take place perhaps it’s time to start asking why a town the size of Hervey Bay has only one escape route when storms like this approach.

There really is only road out of Hervey Bay and when there’s heavy rain that road is cut by flood waters. Instead of spending money on widening certain parts of the road it might have been wiser to spend some money on making our one escape route a genuine all-weather road.

The 5am Tropical Cyclone Advice from the Bureau advises that Tropical Cyclone Hamish remains a category 4 cyclone with  a central pressure of 945 hectoPascals and 250km wind gusts nearing the centre. Tropical Cyclone Hamish continues to move southeast at 10km/h.

The Weather Bureau advises that people living between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay should immediately commence or continue preparations for securing boats and property.

 The Bureau’s latest Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map for Tropical Cyclone Hamish does offer some hope for Hervey Bay. The 5am release suggests that instead of turning in to cross the coast between Bundaberg and Hervey Bay the cyclone will still be heading south east and and will be a category 2 cyclone located well off the coast at 4am on Wednesday.

 You can see the map here … however the forecast path of the cyclone is just that, a forecast and there are no guarantees that this storm will pass Hervey Bay. Even if it does we will almost certainly experience heavy rain over the next few days.

The latest Weather Bureau advice released at 4.53pm this afternoon advises that Tropical Cyclone Hamish has now been downgraded to a category 4 cyclone. At 4pm it was located approximately 260km north of Yeppoon and was moving in a southeasterly direction at 13km/h

The latest tracking map suggests that the centre of Tropical Cyclone Hamish will now pass well to the east of Lady Elliot Island. However computer modeling by the Bureau suggests that Tuesday in the Bundaberg to Hervey Bay area is going to be the critical time. The regional director of the Bureau suggests that Tropical Cyclone Hamish is on a par with Hurricane Katrina … the one that caused so much damage in New Orleans.

The latest forecast map issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for Tropical Cyclone Hamish suggests that Hervey Bay should begin to experience strong gale force winds by 7am on Tuesday morning.

The map also suggests that Tropical Cyclone Hamish may begin to turn towards land around that time. You can see the current map here

At 5.10am the Bureau of Meteorology released its latest advice on Tropical Cyclone Hamish.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is currently located off the north Queensland coast and at 4am was estimated to be 145km northeast of Hayman Island. It’s currently moving south-east at 17km/h and overnight it was upgraded to a Category 5 cyclone.

The Bureau advises that Tropical Cyclone Hamish “poses a very significant threat to coastal and island communities between Bowen and Bundaberg” and damaging wind gusts are expected to affect that area during the next 24 hours. Communities between Bundaberg and Tewantin – including Hervey Bay - are now on Cyclone Watch.

It’s time to make sure that you’ve got fresh batteries in your torches and radio and that important papers, prescriptions etc. are packed in a watertight container and ready to be moved if you should have to evacuate. Don’t leave it till the last second to make these preparations.